New Terrorist Targets

Psychologists concur that human cognition is fairly fixed. Thus, this explains why we become greatly disoriented in environments with infinite vicissitudes: we are stenotopic by design.

Currently, exponentially compounding technological progression, that is independent to the business cycle, is dramatically altering every facet of our lives, albeit on a subtle level. Generally, this implies that people have a feeling that something is different in their lives, and in the world at large, but they are unable to articulate, in exact terms, the sea-changes they see in the world.

This, is in itself very dangerous, and I'll explain why:

A study of history reveals that during periods of rapid societal evolution, a lot of established social institutions crumble, which turns the societal hierarchy upside-down. When this occurs, previously entrenched franchises (and the general masses) are displaced, and they are naturally incensed by their new travails (and the reversal of their fortunes).

Presently, as stated before, the world is rapidly evolving and people generally have a flawed way of relating the causes of the changes to the respective changes. Thus, this essentially implies that displaced individuals have a greater likelihood of venting their anger (about the reversal of their fortunes) towards the wrong constituencies *.

Usually, in these kind of scenarios, the first constituencies in the line of blame are immigrant groups that exhibit the greatest degree of (physical, and cultural) differences to the in-groups of the respective countries they reside in (i.e. unassimilated immigrants), and, segments of the society that are perceived to be profiting, or, deriving benefits from the emergent social order.

However, this time around, the world is much more diverse, racially and culturally, therefore, the majority of the blame for the rapid societal changes won't be shouldered by immigrants; it will be shouldered by individuals and organizations that are perceived to be profiting from the misfortunes of the displaced masses.

Hence, this in turn suggests that the headline risk for wealthy individuals and prominent scientists may be amplified greatly, and thus, any media exposure might inevitably draw them the 'attention' of masses and that are displaced by the sea-changes.

***

Generally speaking, during periods of accelerated change, there is rapid emergence of movements (that are comprised of disenfranchised individuals) that use violent means to resist change (e.g. the Luddites that resisted industrialism during the late 1800s - early 1900s). I speculate that a lot of these movements may increasingly sprawl-up in the near future and they'll cause great tumult in most societies. I also believe that most of these organizations may emerge as religious fundamentalist terrorist groups.

Heretofore, religious fundamentalist terrorist organizations, like al-Qaeda, targeted nations that were prominent on the world stage, but as nation-states progressively decline in influence (owing to rapid globalization that is spear-headed by exponentially compounding technological progression), terrorist organizations may revise their methods and their modus operandi may increasingly reveal a preference for targeting prominent individuals and organizations.

Hence, the new potential terrorist targets may include:

• Prominent scientists that practise genetic engineering and cloning. They'll be targeted by religious fundamentalist groups for undermining, through their work, the widely-held monotheist concept of creation of lifeforms by God (FYI: A menticide of monotheistic religions, also indirectly mounts a formidable challenge to the moral authority of the leadership of monotheistic religions). When stated simply: monotheistic religions may crumble progressively as genetic engineering advances. In response to this, the leaders of monotheistic religions, seeking to preserve the status quo, may mount efforts to curtail advances in genetic engineering (e.g. by sponsoring movements that oppose societal progression). According to Messr. Richard Watson's riveting text entitled 2009+ 10 trends: Predictions and Provocations, 90% of all scientists and engineers with PhDs will live in Asia by 2010. Therefore, we can expect a lot of terrorist activity, that targets scientists, in Asia, especially in South Korea - because it leads the world's genetic science revolution. (Sounds too radical to be true? Keep your eyes open and you'll see that there is at least an ounce of reality in this assertion).
  
• Prominent entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals in BRIC countries and N-11 countries, who'll be targeted for profiting from the global societal upheaval that will ensue the collapse of established societal institutions.
• The perceived enablers and collaborators of the above-mentioned groups
  

Therefore, it is prudent for these groups to exercise caution.

* Whenever you get displaced by a technological development or a new societal development - it is usually your fault - you either failed to adapt, or dropped-anchor in the comfort zone for way too long. Furthermore, change is the only thing that is constant, status is transient, and failure to accept this fact is futile.

An Investment Strategy for the 'Third Wave' of Societal Transition

"To begin with, many of today's changes are not independent of one another. Nor are they random. For example, the crack-up of the nuclear family, the global energy crisis, the spread of cults and cable television, the rise of flextime and new fringe-benefit packages, the emergence of separatist movements from Quebec to Corsica, may all seem like isolated events. Yet precisely the reverse is true. These and many other seemingly unrelated events or trends are inter-connected. They are, in fact, parts of a much larger phenomenon: the death of industrialism and the rise of a new civilization."

— Alvin Toffer in his text entitled The Third Wave

As a self-proclaimed empiricist, I am immoderately pessimistic about the short-term future of mankind, but at the same time, I am also optimistic about the long-term future of the human race. When the preceding statement is expressed in investment jargon; I'm bearish on the foreseeable future of mankind, and bullish on the unforeseeable future of our species.

To expound succinctly on the assertion I made in the preceding paragraph, I believe that the world's short-term future will be characterized by habitual occurrences of acute economic and social pandemonium, which will disintegrate the world order as we know it. The foreseeable future represents a discontinuity in time, when the world begins to change immensely.

Interestingly, this implosion of established social structures will bring out positive changes that will guarantee long-term social stability, and enhanced social welfare for all of mankind. Hence, this simply implies that the foreseeable future will be a period in which the global society will 'incur' costs that are associated with social benefits that will accrue to the 'global village' in the unforeseeable future.

My main aim in writing this post, is to italicize the sea changes that are concomitant to the social transition that is manifesting itself in our midst, and to prescribe a general investment strategy which will enable investors to derive financial advantages (profits) from the changes.

Currently, the majority of the developed world is undergoing the Third Wave of social transition, as was propounded by Messr. Alvin Toffer in his prophetic book entitled The Third Wave. The Third Wave of societal transition is chiefly characterized by the death of industrialism and the rise of a new civilization.

In his text, Alvin Toffer asserts that the following can be regarded as signs of the beginning of 'The Third Wave' (I'll support his assertions with empirical evidence that, in my opinion, suffices):

• The assault on the nation-state from above and below. Evidence in support of this assertion: The proliferation of social networking communities in the cyberspace has enabled individuals from across the globe to form infinite online-based communities (or groups) that are unconstrained by geography, or bounded by historical nation-states. Therefore, as time progresses, online social networks will increasingly decimate, albeit indirectly, socio-cultural barriers that divide the denizens of this planet, and thus, they will consequentially challenge the notion of sovereignty of nation-states. Hence, this, in essence, will constitute an assault on the nation-state.
  

• The emergence of various high technologies, such as cloning, global communications networks, nanotechnology. Evidence in support of this assertion: Obviously, this point is self-evident and does not need further elaboration.

• The gradual eclipsing of manufacturing and manufacturing goods by knowledge-production and information-processing as the primary economic activity. Evidence in support of this assertion: To support this assertion, I will quote a passage from an essay written by Mr. Michael Milken entitled The Corporate Financing Cube: Matching Capital Structure To Business Risk. In the Essay Milken Says: "In the 1920s, when automobiles became a huge industry, 60 percent of the cost of producing a car was in raw materials and energy. For today's computer chips, it's less than two percent of the cost. Brainpower has become the 'raw material' for building companies. This human capital, combined with the social capital of democracy, open markets and the rule of law - is the basis of a prosperous economy."
  

According to Mr. Alvin Toffer, during the early generations of this socio-economic transition, we will witness the precipitation of a wide range of events and trends that will disrupt every kind of social institution. These 'unsettling events' will be fueled by a subliminal battle between those who seek to preserve industrialism and those who seek to supplant it.

Hence, evidently, the first generation of The Third Wave, i.e. the foreseeable future, will be a period of extreme pandemonium. When there is pandemonium, there is widespread insecurity and panic. When people are in a state of trepidation, the price of gold, which is the barometer for fear, skyrockets. Therefore, any investor who seeks to profit from the turmoil, that will punctuate much of the foreseeable future of this planet, should dedicate a growing proportion of his/her portfolio's assets to gold.

You can't go wrong by investing in gold!