The Time Consistency Problem: Why African Governments are Increasingly Renegotiating Mining Contracts

About two days ago I learnt, from a Financial Times article, of Gabon's intentions to seize Sinopec's oil assets. The authors of the article stress that "this is a sign of Africa’s growing assertiveness as competition intensifies for its natural resources". This assertion is not entirely correct; competition for natural resources is not the core driver of Africa's growing 'resource assertiveness'.

In this post, I will use Paul Collier's research findings (cast within a hypothetical scenario) to discuss the driver of Africa's increasing resource assertiveness; the Time Consistency Problem (which stems from an admixture of demographics, politics and inadequate geological information).

***

In this post, I will discuss: 1) How mining companies bid for prospecting rights; 2) The time consistency problem, and; 3) Ways of eliminating "resource squabbles".



...How Miners Bid for Prospecting Rights

To arrive at the approximate bid price for prospecting rights, miners use the Expected Return concept. The Expected Return of any discrete scenario can be simply approximated by multiplying the return that would accrue to investors, if the scenario eventuated, by the probability of the scenario eventuating. Otherwise put, the Expected Return of any scenario can be computed using this formula:

E(Ri) = Probability of scenario i × the return of scenario i 

Illustration 1, below, depicts the Expected Returns of three independent hypothetical prospecting ventures in Country A, Country B and Country C. In each of the scenarios, the net present value of the sub-soil asset is USD 1 billion.

Illustration 1 (click on illustration to zoom in) **

**Note: For the sake of simplicity, Illustration 1 ignores the downside probabilities and their associated costs


As Illustration 1 shows;

• The probability of discovering a USD 1 billion subterranean asset beneath the Country A Claim is 0.2. Hence, this means that the expected return for the Country A Claim is USD 200 million. If a mining house were to bid for rights to prospect the Country A Claim, it would, ceteris paribus, bid a maximum price of USD 200 million.
• The probability of discovering a USD 1 billion subterranean asset beneath the Country B Claim is 0.4. Hence, this means that the expected return for the Country B Claim is USD 400 million. If a mining house were to bid for rights to prospect the Country B Claim, it would, ceteris paribus, bid a maximum price of USD 400 million.
• The probability of discovering a USD 1 billion subterranean asset beneath the Country C Claim is 0.8. Hence, this means that the expected return for the Country C Claim is USD 800 million. If a mining house were to bid for rights to prospect the Country C Claim, it would, ceteris paribus, bid a maximum price of USD 800 million.

That was the easy part, now to backtrack a little: how do mining companies arrive at the hypothetical USD 1 billion net present value of a claim? An oversimplified answer:

1. They estimate the total quantity of the resource that can be extracted from the claim.
2. They estimate the quantity of the resource that they would need to extract to achieve target levels of capacity utilization and efficiency.
3. They estimate the trajectory of the resource price and the resource quantity that they would need to extract to achieve a target annual return on investment.
4. They estimate the level of political risk of the country that has the resource endowment, and, they add it to the mining house's Weighted Average Cost of Capital. This allows them arrive at the discount rate that would be employed in the valuation exercise.
   

To value each (projected) annual (net) cashflow, Elements 1 to 4 can be plugged into this fomula as follows:

Once the present value of each annual cashflow has been estimated, the cashflows are then aggregated to arrive at the value of the resource endowment to the mining venture. This invariably tends to be much lower than the absolute value of the resource endowment, which is computed as follows:

Total quantity of the resource that can be extracted from the claim * The current unit price of the resource on commodities markets

...The Time Consistency Problem

On the 2nd of January in 2009, the price of gold stood at $874.50 per troy ounce. This implies that a claim with a net present value of USD 1 billion in Country A (refer back to Illustration 1), would hold 1,143,511 troy ounces of untapped reserves.

If the probability of "striking it rich" on such a claim was 0.2 (refer back to Illustration 1), the mining house would have bade no more than USD 200 million (i.e. the Expected Return of the claim) to prospect the claim. Otherwise put, if the mining company "struck it rich", it would have paid no more than a fifth of the net present value of the resource asset.

***

By and large, Country A tends to be an under-developed country which has a youth-heavy demographic structure; i.e. a nation which is enduring the pressure to attract investment (in a bid to create jobs).

Otherwise expressed, Country A tends to be a developing nation that has to implement "pro-growth" policies like; tax holidays and tax rebates. Hence, it is reasonable to assert that the mining venture that struck it rich in Country A in 2009, essentially pays:

• Little-to-no taxes.
• Very little in royalties to the government of Country A.

***

If the-said venture only extracted 900 ounces of gold between 2009 and February of 2012, its net gold reserves would, at February 28 2012 gold prices, amount to 1,142,611 ounces. Hence, the nominal absolute value of the resource asset would lie over USD 2 billion (i.e. double its 2009 nominal absolute value). When this happens, people start to pay close attention and the noise starts:

***

Generally, the trend in most societies is towards greater transparency, egalitarianism, democracy and openness. Thus, with the progression of time, there would be a 'growing awareness' of: the "pittance" that the mining venture paid for prospecting rights; the appreciating absolute value of its resource asset; its growing profitability; its level of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), and; its small tax bill and tax optimization practices (e.g.).

In an environment with high unemployment and poverty, this "growing mass awareness" would assume a toxic political dimension and compel the government of Country A to renegotiate its contract with the venture. By and large, the resolve of the government of would strengthen with every uptick of the gold price. Eventually, if the mining venture is headstrong, this pressure would culminate in a fight between the government of Country A and the mining venture, as is shown in Illustration 2 below:

Illustration 2 (click on illustration to zoom in) Adapted From: Index Mundi

Obviously, the odds of winning such a fight are heavily stacked in favour of the government of Country A.

***

From the narrative that precedes Illustration 2, one can conclude, as is shown in Illustration 3, that more information translates into a lower level of commitment to uphold the exploration and mining contract:

Illustration 3 (click on illustration to zoom in)

This is known in economics as the Time Consistency Problem.

To avert it, the government of Country A would need to internalize an approximation of the information that would be available at point c before it enters into a commitment at point a. This would reduce the risk of making uninformed commitments.

For this to happen, the government of Country A would need to unearth, husband and freely dispense information on its subterranean assets [1]. At a fundamental level, this would necessitate public investments in:

1. Country-wide resource exploration endeavours.
2. Databases to organize all available information on subterranean assets.
3. Resource exploration and exploitation analytics. 
4. Channels for dispensing as widely as possible information on subterranean assets.

How, could this four-pronged strategy be operationalized? For the answer to this question, you would need to read Paul Collier's collection of papers and his texts.

Read!

[1] This measure would have the benefit of de-risking the prospecting phase of mining. Otherwise put, the probability of unraveling resource assets, when prospecting, would increase. This would in turn increase the Expected Return of claims / The amount that mining companies bid for prospecting licenses.

Zimbabwe's Forthcoming Elections: Political Equilibrium, Campaign Points and Herestetics

Exactly four years ago; on the 2nd of March 2009, I wrote:

"The monumental 11th of February 2009 swearing-in ceremony of Zimbabwe's Prime Minister, Mr. Morgan R. Tsvangirayi, and Deputy Prime Ministers; Professor Arthur O.G. Mutambara and Ms. Thokozani Khupe, was the culmination of a protracted political settlement which was fraught with mistrust, false-starts and endless bickering.

Now that the much-awaited all-inclusive government has been formed, and a government of national unity is presently at the helm of Zimbabwe, the conundrum sapping minds of Zimbabweans and members of the wider global community alike, is: 'Will this new administrative dispensation bring about Political Stability; Economic Growth; and, Societal Progression?' In other words, 'Does the new administrative establishment have the mettle to tackle Zimbabwe's problems?'"

Looking back, I can unequivocally assert that the transitional political dispensation managed to arrest the free-fall of the Zimbabwean economy, as Illustration 1 and 2 below show [1]:

Illustration 1 (click on illustration to zoom in) [2] Source: Index Mundi

Illustration 2 (click on illustration to zoom in) Source: Index Mundi

However, this economic resurgence has not translated into employment creation; the official unemployment rate in Zimbabwe still hovers near its 2009 level (95%), see Illustration 3 below:

Illustration 3 (click on illustration to zoom in) Source: Index Mundi

***

...The Need for an Incontestable Outcome

There is a truism that Bill Gross, the Founder of PIMCO, likes to utter out. It can essentially be phrased as follows: "capitalism depends on investment, which depends on consumption, which depends on attractive wages [3]. Without real wage growth, profits grow but the real economy can't". Illustration 4, below, sums up Gross's truism:

Illustration 4 (click on illustration to zoom in)

As Illustration 4 shows, a stable geopolitical environment facilitates investment growth. If the forthcoming Zimbabwean presidential and parliamentary elections are conducted in a manner that yields a contestable outcome, there is the risk that the nation would trace the trajectory from c to a in Illustration 5. This would reduce the nation's stability, which, would in turn, curtail inward flows of investment. Ultimately, this would freeze the Zimbabwean unemployment rate above 95%.

Illustration 5 (click on illustration to zoom in)

If the unemployment rate remains at such elevated levels for a prolonged period of time, there is the risk of instability, and the effects of this instability would reverberate across the entire SADC region. Clearly, this scenario is unpalatable. Simply stated, the SADC region cannot afford to have another Zimbabwean election that yields a contestable outcome.

***

The next parts of this blog post capture a thought experiment that I conducted on: 1) The Zimbabwean political equilibrium; 2) The 2013 election issues, and; 3) How the political players could use a herestetical strategy to build fusionist coalitions.

***

...The Zimbabwean Political Equilibrium

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness"

— Thomas Jefferson

The opening quote in this section sums-up what the electorate in any society fundamentally wants; equality, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Therefore, it is reasonable to assert the following: the Zimbabwean 2013 elections will be underpinned by a battle to demonstrate how different policies would allow Zimbabweans to enjoy life and liberty and; to pursue happiness in an egalitarian society. Any political player that fails to demonstrate, by way of triangulation, how its policies satiate the-said fundamental needs will have a campaign that lacks resonance or positive Persuasion Value (see Illustration 5).

Another important aspect of a political message is its Communication Value (see Illustration 5). The key questions that pertain to "Communication Value" can be summed as follows: Is the message well-packaged (format, medium e.t.c.)? Is the correct message being delivered to the correct audience at the correct time? Is the message being delivered by an entity that can best articulate it to the target demographic? In the past elections, Zimbabwean political players made the mistake of bombarding, via the mass media, the electorate with generic messages. This strategy simply won't work in this high stakes election.

Of critical importance is the campaign's Truth Value (see Illustration 5). The key questions that pertain to "Truth Value" can be summed as follows: Is the message credible? Is it supported by multiple objective sources of data or studies? Is the message in alignment with how the electorate perceives the workings of reality? Is the bearer of the message credible? Does the political platform have a track record of doing what it says it will do, when it says it will do it? Does the blend of "spin" in the message overshadow the facts or not?

The above-mentioned three elements (Communication Value, Truth Value and Persuasion Value) form what I term "The Force of Gravity of Rhetorical Elections" (see illustration 5 below). According to Skinner, Bueno De Mesquita, Rice and Kudelia, they tip the balance of a Rhetorical election in favour of the political platform or entity that manipulates them adroitly.

Illustration 5, below, uses the metaphor of a seesaw to exposition the campaign issues of the "incumbent" political party and the opposition parties in Zimbabwe.

Illustration 6 (click on illustration to zoom in)

As Illustration 6 demonstrates, the "opposition parties", large and small, will essentially speak from the same script. However, the resonance of their messages will be differentiated by three things; funding, organizational structures and campaign strategies. Owing to funding constraints, the smaller opposition parties will fail to fashion campaigns with sufficient Communication Value and positive Persuasion Value. Hence, it is reasonable for one to argue that their campaigns will essentially focus on the Truth Value lever.

Otherwise put, they will use a negative campaign strategy that will cast a shadow of doubt on the credibility of the larger opposition parties. In traditional opposition strongholds, like urban areas and the Manicaland and Matebeleland provinces, i.e. where the larger opposition parties are incumbents, the tone of the campaigns would be near-toxic. This would, in effect, polarize the undecided voters. What does this mean? The outcome of the Zimbabwean presidential election will be decided in a run-off!


...What are the Zimbabwean Election Issues?

"The most successful politician is he who says what everybody is thinking most often and in the loudest voice."

 — Theodore Roosevelt

Generally, election issues are memes that capture a society's hopes and fears. They are predominantly influenced by the value system of a society. And, they are essentially underpinned by Maslovian needs. To discern the election issues, I simply asked myself the following questions:

• What do Zimbabweans talk most about, generally?
• What do Zimbabweans complain most about?
• What do Zimbabweans desire most?
• What do Zimbabweans fear most?

I came-up with the list in Illustration 7:

Illustration 7 (click on illustration to zoom in)

 The hot button issues can be summed-up as follows:

1. Monetary Stability: Zimbabweans, from all walks of life, do not want to return to the hyper-inflation era; which they associate with the Zimbabwean dollar. Therefore, it is of paramount importance for political players to clearly stipulate the exact GDP level, Employment level, Debt level, Inflation level that would prompt them to phase-in the Zimbabwean dollar. They will also need to credibly demonstrate how their strategy (for reintroducing the Zimbabwean dollar) would insulate the country from inflation. Failure to do this would be futile. Like the 2008 election, the 2013 election is an economy election.
2. Broadening Participation in the Indigenization and Empowerment Initiative: Make no mistake, the Indigenization and Empowerment initiative resonates with the ordinary Zimbabwean. And, most people would like the initiative to be more broad-based. Further, one or two "implementation issues" have come to the fore, and, political players will need to highlight how they would address these issues.
3. Land Issue, Security of Tenure and Agricultural Productivity: Firstly, the political players would need to present credible pathways that would allow productive landreform farmers to "really own" their land; i.e. they have to demonstrate how they would make land "bankable". Further, they would also need to demonstrate how they would, in a bid to shed-off Zimbabwe's pariah status, conclusively address the "implementation issues" of the land-reform initiative.
   
4. The terms of Chinese participation in the Zimbabwean Economy: This is a hot button issue in most African countries, and, it was one of the factors that determined the outcome of Zambia's last presidential election. Political players would need to credibly demonstrate how they would incentivize Chinese investors to: 1) Respect the country's labour and environmental laws; 2) Enter into value-adding partnerships with Zimbabweans (this is the only thing that would neutralize the Business Elite and Small Entrepreneurs' hostility towards Chinese investment); 3) Beneficiate the resources that they exploit in Zimbabwe; 4) Exercise greater corporate social responsibility; 5) Operate in a transparent manner, and; 6) Create jobs. Failure to do this would be futile.

...Herestetics

Generally, herestetical campaigning is persuasion by idea organization. It allows a political player to negate the "gravitational forces", that were shown in Illustration 6, by linking major and contradictory principles. This strategy allows political players to build a fusionist coalition of groups with disparate needs and wants (refer back to Illustration 7).

Illustration 8, below, depicts how Zimbabwean political players could link their mainstay issues to the hot button issues (in a bid to build fusionist coalitions):

Illustration 8 (click on illustration to zoom in)

The forthcoming Zimbabwean elections would certainly be interesting to follow. While it is difficult to predict who will win at this stage (there are many undecided voters in Zimbabwe), only a finite number of cards can be played [5]. In this post, I have attempted to exposition these cards (barring the violence and opponent suppression and intimidation cards).

Regardless of who wins or loses, my wish is for the Zimbabwean election to be conducted in a manner that is peaceful and yields an incontestable outcome. Because, this is what the Zimbabwean economy really needs to bounce back.

***

[1] What contributed to the bounce-back of Zimbabwe? Between late 2008 and the first month of 2009, i.e. when Mr. Patrick Chinamasa was the interim finance minister of Zimbabwe, he introduced a multi-currency framework that included the Zimbabwe dollar. This move formalized the use of the US dollar for transacting, and, it brought a semblance of stability to the Zimbabwean economy. However, the presence of the debased Zimbabwe dollar in the multi-currency framework destorted prices and undermined the gains that could be realized from this policy (Gresham's Law). When Mr. Tendai Biti became the finance minister of Zimbabwe, he demonitized the Zimbabwe dollar. This move removed the distortions that the Zimbabwe dollar created in the currency system, and it allowed USDs and ZARs to flow into the Zimbabwean currency system. How did these currencies flow into the system? The answer: loan sharks! Their lending activities gave Zimbabwe a lifeline. I know this sounds unromantic, but this is the truth. Secondly, the formation of a transitional government earned Zimbabwe goodwill; more tourists started arriving, firms started spending and hiring. This allowed the nation to bounce back.
[2] The price controls that were instituted in the pre-2009 period distort the true pre-2009 inflation figures by a factor of 10,000 to 100,000.
[3] Consumption and Investment are components of aggregate demand.
[4] I cannot stress enough the importance of this action.
[5] Zimbabweans do not speak openly about their political preferences. So, take with a grain of salt any survey finding that attempts to predict (at this juncture) the winner.

From Nassim Taleb's Black Swans to Black Mambas: Scenarios on the Emergence and Development of Pandemics

The Shona language / ChiShona is predominantly spoken in some parts of South Eastern Africa. According to linguists, the language has what they refer to as a 'holophrastic structure'. In the Shona language, inflections of words express enough attendant circumstances to incorporate into one word what, in Indo-European languages, would require complete sentences.

For instance, in ChiShona the phrase "We are going there" can be expressed in a single twelve letter word like "tirikuendako". Another interesting word is "Rovambira" / "Rova-Mbira", which, as Illustration 1 below shows, can have two broad meanings:

Illustration 1 (click on illustration to zoom in)

As Illustration 1 shows, the word Rovambira can have either of two meanings:

1. An expert at playing the "mbira" or African xylophone. (this is a very loose translation) [3]
2. A snake that bludgeons rock rabbits / rock hyraxes, i.e. a black mamba.

Unlike other serpents, the black mamba is very aggressive; in the rural areas of Africa you will hear tales of the snake "standing" upright on its tail to chase humans. You'll also hear stories of how the snake displays the black interior of its mouth to compel a herd of buffalo to clear its path.

If my memory serves me right, I last saw a black mamba in captivity around 14 years ago. I remember it being a thin, grey, very long snake with a coffin shaped head. I also remember how it was almost motionless in its shatter-proof enclosure, and, how it was difficult for me to reconcile the serpent's seemingly docile nature with the florid tales of aggression that the snake keeper narrated.

Sometime last week, I had a discussion on the topic of risk management with a successful businessman/hunter/environmentalist/conservationist. He used a riveting metaphor of a black mamba's hunting strategy to explain certain blind spots in risk management. I will narrate an abbreviated version of his metaphor below:


...The Miserable Fate of the Young Hyrax

In the Eastern highlands of Zimbabwe, temperatures sometimes drop, at night, to around three degrees Celsius. If you hike up the mountains at dawn (especially the mountains with rocky outcrops in their valleys) you may be "lucky" enough to find a black mamba coiled-up on a flat granite boulder; basking in the sun alongside ten to twenty rock rabbits / rock hyraxes (hyraxes have incomplete thermo-regulation; they use the sun's rays to warm up their bodies). For hours, the serpent lies motionless; seemingly oblivious of the 'nutritious activity' occurring within a short radius from its 'tanning bed'.

As the herd basks, rock-rabbit-sentries perch-up on high vantage points; where they scan the horizon for predators like jackals, eagles, wild dogs, and hawks. Illustration 2 below depicts such a scenario:

Illustration 2 (click on illustration to zoom in)

When there is a predator, like an eagle, on the horizon, the sentries belch-out an alarm call that prompts the entire herd to make a dash for burrows within rock crevices. In the midst of this tumult, the black mamba arises from its ostensible slumber and repeatedly strikes, with immense grace and briskness, up to six (or maybe seven) members of the fleeing herd.

As you may know, the black mamba's venom is made up of powerful neurotoxins that immobilize the stricken victims within a fifteen to thirty second timeframe. Generally, the stricken victims tend to be the younger members of the herd, or, the slower-older members of the herd.

Usually, the snake consumes two or three of the smaller victims (or one large victim if there are no smaller ones) and leaves the remainder (for scavenging white-necked crows to dispose. The snake may also strike the crows if they are too hasty.)

The miserable fate of the departed herd members can be summed-up in Illustration 3 as follows:

Illustration 3 (click on illustration to zoom in)

What the metaphor demonstrates: we tend to focus on the risks that lie on distant horizon, sometimes, to the detriment of greater more proximate risks. Further, when the proximate risk factors spawn undesirable events, we tend to err by linking the undesirable events to the distant risk factors that we were fixated upon.


...The 8th Edition of the World Economic Forum's Risk Report

Yesterday, I spent a small chunk of my time skimming through the current edition of the World Economic Forum's Risk Report. I focused on identifying the relationships, and, the first and second-order consequences of the risk factors in Illustration 4:

Illustration 4 (click on illustration to zoom in) Source: WEF Risk Report

Illustration 5 expositions the inter-linkages, first and second-order consequences that I identified:

Illustration 5 (click on illustration to zoom in) [1]

In this blog post, I will use scenarios to add contextual dimensions to the risk factors in Illustration 5, and, to demonstrate the linkages between the risk factors. My objective is to show how garden variety activities may advance these risks. And, how it is easy to underestimate them (i.e. the risk factors are more of "black mambas" and less of "eagles").

***

...Frontiers with Unknown Viruses

"If an intelligent extra-terrestrial was tasked with writing the encyclopaedia of life on this planet, twenty seven out of thirty of these volumes would be devoted to bacteria and viruses. With just a few of the volumes left for plants, fungi and animals, and, humans would just be a foot note... an interesting footnote... but a footnote nonetheless."

 –  Nathan Wolfe, Virologist

Where do most of the unknown viruses live? Answer:

1. Oceans.
2. Forests (particularly rainforests).

 Illustration 6 below depicts the world's forest cover:

Illustration 6 (click on illustration to zoom in)

As Illustration 6 demonstrates, the African forest cover, that lies between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, is relatively under-exploited or "untouched". Therefore, it is reasonable for one to argue that most of the unknown viruses that will be discovered in the near future will emerge from African equatorial rainforests. Hence, the scenarios that would be narrated in this post will have their settings in equatorial Africa.

Illustration 7 below expositions some of the scenarios that would be explored in this post:

Illustration 7 (click on illustration to zoom in)

Generally, the black scenarios are the most probable ones and the green ones, are ceteris paribus, the least probable scenarios. In this post, I will only narrate the most probable scenarios, i.e. the black mambas.

***

A scenario is basically a story about what happened in the future. Illustration 8 depicts the dimensions of the scenarios that will be narrated:

Illustration 8 (click illustration to zoom in)

 And so, the story telling begins [2]:

...The Bushmeat Hunter Scenario

Pierre Boma (fictional name) is a twenty six year-old father of five children. He lives in a small village that is located on the southern-most fringes of the Ituri rainforest in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Until about two months ago, he worked as a general hand at a Chinese lumber company. The firm was forced to shut down by rogue Congolese soldiers (owing to late payment of "taxes").

Unfortunately, the company owed Pierre about two months'-worth of wages when it shut down. Because of this, he is chronically short of money and cannot afford to purchase the bare essentials. To make matters worse, the crop of cassava that he grew on the wetland plot that the Mwami / Chief gave him (when Pierre got married) failed because of the torrential rains.

Further, the six 50 kg bags of soy meal, that Pierre got from the Belgian aid organization that visits quarterly, were collected by the Mwami and sent to the rebels in the jungle. Had the Mwami not done this, the rebels would have certainly: 1) sacked the village; 2) publicly raped everyone (male/female) in sight; 3) buried all the village elders alive; 4) crushed the skulls of all the infants; 5) abducted the young girls (for use as sex slaves); 6) forcibly recruited the young boys, and; 7) enslaved the men (for use as free labour in mines).

The only stable source of income that the Boma family has is the USD 2.50 per day that Pierre's wife, Carolina, earns from her evening "shift work" at the UN peace keeper base (that is 20 km from the village). Carolina, a buxom woman with a musical voice, never explains exactly what she does at the base; she just brings the money home at the end of every evening. Sometimes, she brings back blankets and provisions that are emblazoned with the UN logo. The blue berets are kind enough to pick-up and drop-off Carolina and other young women who "work" at the base every evening.

To sustain his family, Pierre hunts small game in the dense part of the rainforest that the rebels avoid. With his younger brother Patrice, he sets snares and traps in the undergrowth. On lucky days, they find pythons or small antelopes in the traps. 

The brothers also use homemade bows and arrows to shoot down any monkeys and gorillas that they spot on their way in and out of the rainforest. It is this meat that their families subsist on and sell (if there is any surplus).

Just yesterday, Pierre's right hand was cut when he was setting the snares. As he heads out to check his snares and traps, he notices that the cut is bleeding intermittently. Unfortunately, when he gets to the hunting grounds, he finds nothing in the snares. However, he does manage to shoot down two small monkeys and one young gorilla. When he lifts up the gorilla it bleeds profusely, see Illustration 9, and some of its blood seeps into his unprotected wound:

Illustration 9 (Adapted From: Wolfe's TED Talk)

What he doesn't know: The blood that seeped into his wound was contaminated with a mutated zoonotic  virus that will infect and kill him; his entire village, 95% of the rebels, 40% of the UN peace keepers and 200,000 people in the surrounding African countries (within the next 6 months). 

Simply stated, Pierre, is what virologists term "patient zero" in an outbreak of a deadly pandemic that wipes-out entire communities.

...The Rebels in the Jungle Scenario

The Wizzi rebel group (fictitious name) is made up of young men from the marginalized Wizzi tribe (fictitious name). Like some rebel groups in the region, the group took up arms to pressure the government into returning the land that was unlawfully taken from the Wizzi.

Since August, the rebel group has been roaming in the Western fringes of the Ituri rain forest. The sanctions that the UN slapped on its foreign backers reduced their willingness to support it. Thus, to sustain its activities, it  has had to resort to "preying" upon the surrounding communities. Naturally, these acts of pillage have spawned a strong anti-Wizzi tribe sentiment in the Ituri region.

Yesterday, the armed drones that were deployed by the African Union, in a well-orchestrated night time aerial raid, decimated the ranks of this rebel group. Remnants of this group are now hiding in a cave that is located in a limestone-rich pocket of the rainforest.

The wounded commander, Kenneth Goga (fictitious name), rises up to address the surviving members of his company (who are huddled around a lamp). "Gentlemen, it looks like the only way out of this quagmire is dialogue. The African Union..." Before he gets the opportunity to finish this statement, a bat appears from the middle of nowhere and bites him on his forehead. He grabs it with his bare hands, dislocates its neck and continues to deliver his speech.

What he doesn't know: The bat was infected with a lethal mutant virus that will infect him and all the delegates who will attend the African Union-mediated peace talks (that will occur in three days' time). The Rhabdovirus will induce Ebola-like symptoms in the affected people, and, it will have a mortality rate of 80%!

...The Research Scientist Scenario

Dr. Fionne von Trexlar (fictitious name) is a 31 year-old scion of an old European banking dynasty. Not only does she have movie star looks, she is also an over-achiever who excels at everything she ever does. At 16, she was part of the four-by-one-hundred Belgian women's track team that won a gold medal and set an Olympic record. When she participated in the Olympics, she had already published 15 papers in leading Zoology journals.

With a team of some of the best and brightest software engineers in Silicon Valley, she developed an algorithm that could translate, into complete English sentences, the grunts and gestures of bonobos. She spent three months testing the technology at a gorilla conservancy in Cameroon. 

While she waits backstage for the TEDx host to introduce her, Fionne's mind drifts back to the conservancy in Cameroon. She gets goosebumps as she remembers how, Gogo, the matriarch of the lesbian bonobo sisterhood that she was studying, welcomed the frail primates (that Fionne had rescued when a patch of forest was being cleared for use as a plantation). She feels a bit feverish and suspects that it's just the nerves. However, this doesn't deter her from delivering a TEDx talk that receives a standing ovation. 

At the end of the talk, multiple members of the audience congratulate her on the ground-breaking research. She locks into animated and engaging conversations with all the people who approach her. And, she looks forward to following-up on all the connections that she establishes. 

When she gets home, she feels weak and the hot-cold flashes intensify. As she keys the details of each new contact into her Google contact list, she starts to feel dizzy and she collapses.

Luckily, her wealthy hedge fund manager boyfriend, Diego, walks into her home office just after she collapses and calls the paramedics. That very evening Fionne passes away.

She is the first of 200,000 New Yorkers who will die after catching what virologists will term Bubonic Plague on Steroids.

***

Beware of black mambas!


[1] Viruses also attack bacteria. This forces the bacteria to mutate into what may very well be drug resistant super-bugs.
[2] The reader should use his or her own judgement to discern the facts (yes there are factual parts) from the fiction.
[3] The actual word is "gwenyambira". When used in a sentence like "gwenyambira ano-rovambira", the word assumes the loose meaning that I have stated.